"The 2010 Joint Operating Environment (JOE)." 2010. U.S. Joint Forces Command, Suffolk, VA.

Download this document at http://permanent.access.gpo.gov/lps121890/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf

Review by Professor Bert Chapman, Government Information, Political Science, and Economics Librarian, Purdue University.

This work is another example of a governmental assessment of emerging international security trends comparable to the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends series and how the U.S. might respond to these trends. JOE maintains that the next quarter century will present U.S. joint forces with threats and opportunities from state and non-state actors in conventional and unconventional wars.  It mentions that enemy capabilities will include explosive vests worn by suicide bombers, traditional military weaponry, and long-range precision-guided cyber, space, and missile attacks which may deliver weapons of mass destruction. JOE also stresses that the U.S. will be surprised by changes in economic, operational, strategic, and technological environments and by our enemies creativity and capability.

An integral area of concern for joint U.S. forces is facing actors who see the world through differing lenses and values and the importance of the U.S. shaping conflict narratives to effectively communicate the validity of its positions and responses to the international community. Specific areas of U.S. security concerns include demographics with 95% of global population increase occurring in developing countries by 2030; globalization and increasing variations in wealth distribution; national debt and budget crises affecting countries such as the U.S. which will limit their ability to respond to some international security crises;  and growing global demand for fossil energy sources coupled with declining known reserves of these sources which could produce armed conflict. Additional threat scenarios include the possibility of food shortages due to population increases and natural disasters; climate change; water shortages; pandemics; cyber warfare against economic and military targets; growing international interest in controlling space by China and other countries; weapons of mass destruction proliferation; and political and security challenges the U.S. will face to its interests from trends and developments in countries and regions  such as Africa, China, Europe,  India, Latin America, the Middle East and Central Asia, Russia, and from failing states and radical ideologies such as militant Islam.

JOE 2010 contains many useful insights while also stressing how increasing global urbanization enhances the possibility of conflict in urban areas and how U.S. joint forces must be prepared to conduct a variety of different operations simultaneously against continually evolving forces. It also places acute emphasis on the importance of professional military education in preparing senior military leaders for coping with these continually evolving and adaptive security environments. One area of weakness is the highly naïve claim that Taiwan’s reunification with China could increase the spread of democratic ideals on the mainland and weaken the Communist Party’s grip on that country (p. 42).   Another failing is not addressing how Wikileaks and hacker groups such as Anonymous can compromise military operational security and how U.S. Joint Forces can take effective countermeasures against these organizations. Despite these oversights, this work still contains many useful and mostly sound assessments.

It’s unfortunate that the Joint Forces Command was terminated on August 31, 2011, because Joint Forces Command is essential for coordinating U.S. responses to emerging international security trends and developments requiring the effective and joint application of U.S. military power. Its closure may bring momentary budgetary relief, but negatively impact the U.S.’ ability to meet and defeat emerging security threats.

Professor Bert Chapman, Government Information, Political Science, and Economics Librarian, Purdue University